Changing Dynamics of China-India Relations: CPEC and Prospects for Pakistan

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is one of the six main economic corridors being

developed under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Adopted in 2013, the economic corridor is

meant to improve the development situation of Pakistan through investments in the energy sector,

industrial areas (the SEZs), infrastructure, such as the construction of roads and railways, and the

development of the deep-sea port of Gwadar. Through China’s vision of ‘mutual development for

the BRI.

Despite the various challenges arising from the implementation of the CPEC, it is clear that the

initiative holds great promise for the national development of Pakistan. However, the Indian

government and indeed a segment of Indian policy makers and analysts assert that the CPEC

is China’s device to ‘encircle India,’ and Pakistan is only a collaborator in this scheme. Pakistani

policy makers, on the other hand claim that it is a ‘game changer’ and a pivot of the China-Pakistan

strategic partnership. It is noteworthy that China has demonstrated enormous skill in managing

territorial disputes with India, while continuing to expand their trade and commerce. In fact, India-

China economic relations are booming with the volume of trade and investment estimated at over

80 billion US dollars. China-Pakistan trade and investment is less than 18 billion US dollars.

Both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, driven by a rivalry that entails territorial disputes claims of both India and Pakistan has complicated the nature of Indo-Pak relations. Indeed, the history and legality of the dispute is both complex and difficult to de-construct, but has led the two countries into wars three times since their independence in 1947. Most recently on 5th August 2019, the BJP government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi by abrogating Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that had granted special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, has provoked yet another crisis surrounding the status of Jammu and Kashmir. The decision was made unilaterally, avoiding any consultative or participatory processes in including any representative body of the over eight million people of Kashmir.1 Secondly, this step to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status also violates international law and UN resolutions including the Security Council’s Resolution 47 of 21 April 1948, which called for a “democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite” by both the Pakistani and Indian governments—something that has not yet taken place. Thirdly, the Simla Agreement of 1972 has also been set aside in which both Pakistani and Indian leaders agreed on the following terms:

“In Jammu and Kashmir, the line of control resulting from the ceasefire of December 17,1971,shall be respected by both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side. Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations".2

The current dispensation of Indian and Pakistani leadership suggests that the Kashmir issue will continue to strain Pakistan-India relations. Yet, one does wonder whether both nations will be able to look beyond their security-centric foreign policies and give priority to regional interdependence and economic growth?

The BRI, inclusive of the CPEC, has provided a novel opportunity for nations to rethink the

global economic and strategic order—an innovative synergy of geo-economic factors superseding

geo-political considerations is already panning out. We conclude that the CPEC remains, and

must be sustained as, an economic opportunity and not a strategic challenge or threat to anyone,

India included.

** Given the rapidly changing India-U.S, India-China and even India-EU and UK, not to mentioin Russia… deals, this article though written in 2020 does provide insights, analysis and recommendations that scholars and policy makers may find useful and informative. Download is available for critique & deliberations.